It’s Time to Get Active

Welcome back. In the earliest days of this blog, I described the evolution of my daily exercise routine (Time to Exercise). The foundation was laid on a UN project in 1982, during which our team visited the Tien Shan Mountains in northwestern China. When I returned to Cornell, my mentor, colleague and friend, Prof. Ta Liang, who had come to the U.S. from China after World War II, advised me that, because I’d seen Heavenly Lake, I would live forever.

Warren and UN project counterparts at Heavenly Lake, Tien Shan Mountains, Xinjiang, China.

Although I trusted Ta implicitly, as I got older, I decided that I’d better hedge my bet. I started exercising.

All this is to say that starting to exercise at any age can have major health benefits. This was shown in a study presented at the European Society of Cardiology Congress by a researcher at Switzerland’s University of Bern.

Sidebar
I was hesitant to blog about this study for a few reasons: (1) the research was presented at a conference, not published in a peer-reviewed journal; (2) I’d be blogging about a study, without seeing the paper; and (3) the research focused on health benefits for coronary heart disease patients.

I went ahead for a few reasons: (1) though the conference submission may not have been peer-reviewed, the study involved a meta-analysis of published research that would have been peer-reviewed; (2) the study focused on cardiovascular disease mortality but included all-cause mortality; (3) considering the research and researcher, the paper will likely be published if submitted; and (4) I didn’t want to wait a year to share the findings.

The New Study
The researcher conducted a meta-analysis, combining results from nine separate studies, to investigate the relationship of physical activity with the risk of cardiovascular disease death. In all, 33,576 patients (average age 62.5 years, 34% female) with coronary heart disease were included.

The patients were classified as physically active or inactive using validated questionnaires at baseline and after a median of 7.2 years. Definitions of active and inactive varied across the different studies but were in line with the 2016 European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice for healthy people--at least 150 minutes/week of moderate intensity or 75 minutes/week of vigorous activity, or some combination.

Patients were categorized into four groups according to their activity status at both baseline and follow-up: inactive over time, active over time, increased activity over time, and decreased activity over time. All of the studies defined “increased activity over time” as changing from the inactive to the active category and “decreased activity over time” as changing from the active to the inactive category.

Each of the four groups was assessed against the risks of all-cause and cardiovascular disease deaths at 7.2 years after baseline.

Wrap Up
Compared to patients who were inactive over time, the risk of all-cause death was 50% lower in those who were active over time, 45% lower in those who were inactive but became active, and 20% lower in those who had been active but became inactive.

Continuing the same comparison, the risk of death due to cardiovascular disease, was 51% lower in those who remained active over time, 27% lower for those who were inactive but became active, and statistically the same for those whose activity decreased over time.

Although regular physical activity over the years offered the greatest longevity, starting later in life offered heart disease patients significant survival benefits. But those benefits were reduced or even lost if the physical activity was not maintained.

So do yourself a favor--continue or start exercising. Thanks for stopping by. 

Some of Warren’s low-cost exercise paraphernalia: stationary bike (especially for bad weather, less than $200), running/walking shoes, mat, free weights, bungee cord, shorts, hat, t-shirt (optional for predawn), reflective vest (mainly for predawn); dress warmer in winter.

P.S.
The European Society of Cardiology (ESC): www.escardio.org/The-ESC
ESC Congress 2021--The Digital Experience: www.escardio.org/Congresses-&-Events/ESC-Congress
Congress program: digital-congress.escardio.org/ESC-Congress/programme
Study author: www.ispm.unibe.ch/about_us/staff/gonzalez_nathalia/index_eng.html
Study title: Physical activity trajectories are associated with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Article on study on EurekAlert! website: www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/925989
European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4986030/

Supporting China Scientists

Welcome back. About 17 months ago, an open letter was published in The Lancet, one of the world's oldest and best-known general medical journals. Some two dozen international physicians, veterinarians, epidemiologists, virologists, biologists, ecologists and public health experts joined to express solidarity with professional colleagues in China.

Following the emergence of COVID-19 in China, rumors, misinformation and conspiracy theories arose regarding the virus’s origins. Especially disconcerting was the targeting of scientists and health professionals in China who had shared data with unprecedented speed, openness and transparency, while working to learn more about the newly recognized virus and fight the outbreak. The unsubstantiated allegations threatened to undermine the very global collaborations that were vital to combat the disease.

Former President Trump delivering a prerecorded message to the U.N. General Assembly (22 Sep 2020) during which he called on China to be held accountable for unleashing the “China virus” (UNTV via AP from www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/22/trump-blasts-china-coronavirus-pandemic-un-speech/5864039002/). 

 

In recent months, many of those who had signed the open letter were being asked if they still endorse what they had written in early 2020. The group’s response was published as a longer, more detailed correspondence in the same journal.

The Second Open Letter
The group reaffirmed its solidarity with colleagues in China as well as with health professionals around the world, working to exhaustion at personal risk to battle the virus--“Our respect and gratitude have only grown with time.”

They wrote how the pandemic highlighted the need to build a better understanding of how science proceeds, linking with health, public health and politics.

For example, in the initial correspondence, they expressed their working view that COVID-19 most likely originated in nature, not in a laboratory. This was based on early genetic analysis and previous emerging infectious diseases.

They still find the strongest evidence is that the virus evolved in nature, noting:
“Evidence obtained using the scientific method must inform our understanding and be the basis for interpretation of the available information. The process is not error-free, but it is self-correcting as good scientists endeavor to continually ask new questions, apply new methodologies…and revise their conclusions through an open and transparent sharing of data and ongoing dialogue.”

Suggestions of a laboratory-leak source remain without scientifically validated evidence.

China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology is at the center of speculation about where the COVID-19 pandemic may have begun (from www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-origins-questions-wuhan-lab-leak-nature).

Wrap Up
They emphasize that allegations and conjecture are of no help; recrimination will not encourage cooperation and collaboration. Because new viruses can emerge anywhere, maintaining transparency and cooperation among scientists everywhere is essential. Cutting professional links and reducing data sharing will not make us safer.

“It is time to turn down the heat of the rhetoric and turn up the light of scientific inquiry if we are to be better prepared to stem the next pandemic.”

The writers encourage the World Health Organization and scientific partners to extend their initial investigation with experts in China and the Government of China.

Perhaps I should add that, among international leaders in infectious disease research and public health, the list of signatories to the letters includes such renowned U.S. scientists as the former Asst. Surgeon General/former Head of CDC National Center for Emerging Diseases, former Head of the National Science Foundation, former Head of the National Institutes of Health Fogarty International Center, as well as multiple members of the U.S. National Academy of Medicine.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
First open letter: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
Second open letter: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01419-7/fulltext
Petition in support of first open letter: www.change.org/p/government-agencies-and-people-of-the-world-support-for-the-public-health-professionals-of-china-combatting-covid-19
COVID lab-leak hypothesis: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3

Science Status Report

Welcome back. Having worked in science and engineering (S&E) for over half a century, I find it difficult to accept that I now have to march to defend science. Nevertheless, I did, as I blogged in Marching for Science. 

But this blog post isn’t about me or marching; it’s about a report: The National Science Foundation’s Science & Engineering Indicators 2018. The NSF is the federal agency that supports fundamental research and education in non-medical S&E. Its governing National Science Board is congressionally mandated to report the status of U.S. S&E every two years.

Chapters of NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2018 report.

Although the report is based mainly on data collected through 2015 or 2016, it offers unique and useful background for assessing where we are and where we’re headed.

NSF Report
The online, interactive report is loaded with clearly presented, wide-ranging data and commentary. Included for separate, easy access with the full report are a digest; the data; the figures; trends in S&E by state; sources of U.S. research and development (R&D) expenditures; as well as a further breakdown of other report content.

Cover of NSF Science & Engineering
Indicators 2018 report digest.

The digest is particularly useful, serving in effect as an executive summary that introduces the report, highlights important trends and links to the available data. It focuses on 42 indicators under 7 themes, 3 of which are viewed globally--R&D spending; research outputs; and science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education--and 4 of which are viewed domestically--R&D funding and performance; the S&E workforce; invention, knowledge transfer and innovation; and public attitudes and understanding of science and technology.

Principal Finding
The big news is that, while the U.S. holds a preeminent global position in S&E, the lead is shrinking. Other nations, especially China, increasingly recognize scientific and technical capabilities as engines of economic growth.

Between 2000 and 2015, China, India and South Korea expanded R&D expenditures rapidly compared to the pace of the U.S and European Union (E.U.). In 2015, the U.S. accounted for 26% of global R&D expenditures; China accounted for 21% of the total.

Percentage of Global R&D expenditures by region in 2000 and 2015 (from NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2018).

R&D improves production processes in manufacturing and services, a major component of the global economy. China has grown to become the largest global producer in medium-high-technology manufacturing industries and second only to the U.S. in high-technology manufacturing industries.

Research publications contribute to knowledge. In 2016, China produced the largest number of articles in engineering, chemistry, physics, geosciences, computer sciences and agricultural sciences.

Over the past 15 years, nearly half of the S&E bachelor’s degrees awarded globally were conferred in India (25%) and China (22%), compared to 10% in the U.S.

Changes Ahead
Permit me to select data on a few areas that are seeing significant change under the current administration--defense, sustainable energy and immigration.

Defense’s share of the federal R&D budget was anomalously low in 2009 (52%), but since 2010 it has gradually declined (58% to 53%). Expect that to zoom ahead.

The large investment and deployment of sustainable energy technologies grew renewable energy generation capacity from 130 gigawatts (GW) in 2006 to 912 GW in 2016, excluding hydropower. Between 2010 and 2016, China added a cumulative 200 GW of solar and wind generation capacity, the E.U. added a cumulative 137 GW and the U.S. added much less, 82 GW. It’s likely the U.S. will continue to lag.

Foreign-born scientists and engineers are critical to the U.S. S&E workforce--41% of master’s degree holders, 36% of PhDs and over half of PhDs in engineering, computer sciences and mathematics occupations are foreign born. The squeeze on immigration is having an effect. The number of international students in the U.S., which was climbing steadily, dropped in 2017 in nearly all areas. The largest graduate student declines were in computer science and engineering.

Wrap Up
I’ve been living in Wisconsin for the past few years, though my ties are stronger to New York and Virginia. As an example of the state-specific data available in the report and the way it can be manipulated, I compared the percentage of bachelor’s degree holders among individuals 25-44 years old in the U.S. and each state.

Percentage of bachelor’s degree holders among individuals 25-44 years old in U.S., New York, Virginia and Wisconsin, 2005-2016 (derived from data in NSF Science & Engineering Indicators 2018).

I strongly recommend you take a look at the report. I’m sure you’ll come up with something much more significant. Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
NSF’s Science & Engineering Indicators 2018 report: www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/
Article on report on ScienceDaily website: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180124113951.htm

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Horse Year Photo Addendum

No, 1982 wasn’t a Chinese Year of the Horse, described in last Friday’s blog post, Horse Year Caution. But I was in the Altay area of Xinjiang, China that year, and there were lots of horses. Here’s a handful of photographs that I didn’t include in my earlier post, China Rodeo Photo Addendum.

Our UN-FAO team leader awarded a Polaroid
photo of the winner of one of the events to the
winner. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

There was so much activity around us, it was
sometimes difficult to know which was
an event. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

Most events were relatively close, but here’s
how a few appeared. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

I’ve no idea what was going on down there, but
it was happening fast. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

This, I’m pretty certain, was more of the
side action. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

As mentioned in my earlier post, the women rode
at least as good as the men. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

Two young women rode by for a
closer look. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

I’m slipping in this photo from the Tien-shan Mountains
area because I thought the family on a horse was
special. Too bad I was traveling with only a 50 mm lens.
The bottom photo is an enlarged part of the top photo,
and the top photo is also enlarged. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

Facebook Cover Photo

Sprucing up for 2014, I changed the header on this blog a couple of weeks ago. I hope you like it. Earlier this week, I also changed the cover photo on the blog Facebook Page: Retired - Now What? I hope you like that too. Here’s the photo I used (without a caption):

Some of the rodeo spectators, Xinjiang, China, 1982.

The photo is a low resolution, cropped version of a photo I took during a 1982 UN livestock development project in Xinjiang, China. We were in the Altay area and the residents put on a phenomenal rodeo for us.

I included an even more cropped version of the photo with other photos of the event in an October 2011 blog post, China Rodeo Photo Addendum.

Was that a grandfather and grandson?
Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

China Cows Photo Addendum

In the close of last Friday’s blog post, Beetle News, I mentioned the absence of cows in my area of the dairy capital of the US. Lest you think that I wouldn’t know a cow if I saw one, I offer this handful of photos I took in 1982 during a UN livestock development project in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China.

A stud bull at the Animal Breeding Center, Urumqi. (Yes,
I saw him in action. Wow! Talk about no foreplay.)

Young cows and calves at a commune near Urumqi.

The commune’s dung pile is used mainly for cooking. (Sorry, beetles.)

Our convoy pulled aside as this herd of cows proceeded
to a different pasture in the Altay Region.

A herd of cows in the Altay Region. (Gotcha! They're sheep.)

Photo Interpretation Addendum

My inability to determine much by studying the photograph in last Friday’s blog post, The House in the Photograph, belies my experience at photo interpretation. One of the courses I taught for years was essentially an image analysis course focused on environmental applications. I was asked to develop the course to complement other courses in our Remote Sensing curriculum.

On the first day of class, when students were still shopping for electives, I would tell them everything about the course--how great it was, the schedule of topics, my expectations, grading etc, and I’d show at least these four 35 mm slides to give them a taste.

Although I let the direction and depth of image analysis vary each year with the students’ freewheeling identifications and interpretations, with or without voting, you might like to see how you would have fared. (Information about each photo is at the bottom.) Would you have wanted to come back for more?

Tell me everything about the scene and
 support your analysis with what you see.

You struggled with the first photo,
but this one will make you feel cuddly.
Tell me everything about the scene.

Uh-oh. This one is tough. Again, tell
me everything about the scene.

This one should be easy. Fill in all
the (who, what, where, when) blanks.

Photo 1: A bus stop, Philippines, 1971. Identifying the buses, signs, activities, dress and wet streets narrow the location. When enterprising students moved closer to the screen, they could read the orange display sign on the bus front, “Divisoria,” adding Spanish (or Tagalog) to the mix and leading to comments about image resolution.

Photo 2: A panda, Beijing Zoo, 1982. Identifying the panda and structure narrows the location to a zoo. Studying the people and dress, and knowing which zoos have pandas, might take you further.

Photo 3: A formally dressed, elderly woman, holding a basketball, Philippines, 1972. The woman’s dress appears Spanish; the banana leaf on the right suggests it’s subtropical or tropical. Having seen the bus stop photo, students usually guessed the Philippines. But the basketball didn’t fit and wasn’t readily identified. Once identified, it did lead to fun interpretations.

Photo 4: Man, woman and dog in temperate zone, winter setting, 1970. Everything in the photo was familiar to most of the students, leading to speedy answers; e.g., snow and vegetation point to temperate zone, car and fashions (woman’s bell-bottom pants) suggest approximate date. But students always guessed married couple, which wasn’t the case; they were only friends. Interpretations are indeed interpretations; identifications can take you only so far.

Scroll Photo Addendum

Thinking about unrolling and deciphering Curse Tablets described in last Friday’s post, I remembered a gift that was neither a curse nor ancient. Amazingly, I found it in one of our neatly stacked unpacked boxes.

Thirty years ago, while supporting a UN project in China, I was invited to present a guest lecture at Beijing University (aka Peking University). The hosts graciously presented me a gift to commemorate the event, and I was most grateful.

The gift, draped in unrelated paper.

Unwrapping the gift, described in Mandarin by the label.

Unrolling the gift: a commemorative Chinese scroll
painting. According to a reliable source (and confirmed
 by “Grandma”) that’s my name on the right.

P.S.

Whistle if you’d like higher resolution photos of the text.

Urban Neighborhoods Photo Addendum

The neighborhood settings for last Friday’s blog post, Meet The Neighbors, were generally single-family houses in a suburban environment. Other than during my time traveling and years as a student, I’ve little experience interacting with neighbors in other settings. Living in the homes shown here must pose interesting challenges. 

Hong Kong, 1970.

Beijing, China, 1986.

Damascus, Syria,1982.

New York City, 2011. (www.rachelphilipson.com)

New York City, 2011. (www.rachelphilipson.com)

New York City, 2011. (www.rachelphilipson.com)

No-Problem Photo Addendum

Instead of grumbling about a "no problem" response to "thank you," I thought I’d take this opportunity to illustrate instances of when "no problem" is appropriate. 

Road blocked by two flocks of sheep? No problem. Just

wait until they move the sheep. Xinjiang, China, 1982.

Stuck again crossing the muddy stream? No problem.

Just find a farmer with a tractor. Syria, 1983.

Too much traffic on the unpaved city street? No problem.

Just keep driving; they’ll move. Syria, early 1980s.

Baskets too big to get your arms around? No problem.

Just use your head. Bangladesh, 1981.

Outmatched in a fight? No problem.

Just call, "Maaa!" Warren and his

big brother, mid-1940s.

Gone Camping

Welcome back. Jogging this morning, I noticed the RVers are back. I tried to be very quiet when I passed. As recreational vehicles go, this one’s a nice size; a step up from what I guess is still called a camper. I never see the RVers, just the RV. It reappears for a few days every 4 to 6 months, parked in front of the same house, plugged into the house with a long power cord.
 
I wouldn’t want to pay for the gas, but an RV this size seems like a comfortable way to travel and camp out. If you want the real thing, you can always unpack your sleeping bag and curl up under the stars or pitch a tent, breathe the fresh air and cook over an open fire. Or run inside if it rains.

Warren’s parents, camping in mid-1930s.

My parents hiked and camped a lot but stopped that sort of thing after my brother and I were born. Frankly, my mother didn’t look that thrilled in the camping photos I found. It’s possible she just woke up and my father told what she missed. Once, when she was sleeping, he saw a snake slithering across her body! Shouting might not have the desired effect, so he just watched. The snake slithered on by.

I don’t know any details about the snake or its family heritage, but, when young, I always envisioned something like a medium size boa constrictor, albeit rare for New York’s Adirondacks. Maybe that’s why I’m not wild about camping.

 

My Camping Life

The fellows who prepared the campsite for a

UN project in Northwest China, early 1980s.

I shared my most recent camping experience in my first blog post. It was long ago, far away and short. I didn’t select the site, which was near a flowing stream for bathing. I wasn’t responsible for cooking or setting up the tent, which was large and nifty. And I didn’t have to dig the restroom facility, which was also pretty nifty.

One of the cooking areas at the

China campsite, early 1980s.

My only other semi-memorable camping experience was for an undergraduate summer engineering survey camp--5 weeks in a tent for 5 credit hours. I think there were 20 to 30 students. I don’t recall how many tents we shared, but we were within crawling distance of a structure with plumbing facilities. I remember the cook, from a fraternity, but not the food, so it must have been ok.

The restroom at the Northwest

China campsite, early 1980s.

None of us was overjoyed about being there. It sure cut into our months for earning and playing. Several students, particularly those who were married, tried to commute, even when we had evening meetings or assignments, which was regularly. We were about 20 miles from campus.

We did learn. We employed every known ground surveying approach to map a chunk of terrain that encompassed a small forested mountain or big hill, depending on where you’re from, and a small lake.

We also went off to collect data for monitoring ground subsidence over an underground salt mine. We never saw the mine, but we did get to see a student being driven off to a hospital. That day’s lesson was avoid hitching rides on a car hood when you’re carrying a precise level.

Wrap Up

This is all to say that when our son, Noah, was growing up, it was my wife, Vicki, not me, who took him camping. When they returned each time, I didn’t bother to ask if he liked camping, because all he ever talked about were the side trips--whitewater rafting, ATV riding, lying in a field to watch a Leonid meteor shower.

Yep, those would have improved my attitude about camping when I was young, even if they weren’t as cool as watching a boa constrictor crawl across your tentmate.

Thanks for stopping by.

China Rodeo Photo Addendum

In last Friday’s blog post, Dining Out, I mentioned missing out on fermented horse milk during a UN project in northwestern China--the Altay area of Xinjiang. I’m not sure where I was when members of our team went off to learn about milking horses and fermenting the milk, but I didn’t miss the rodeo held the previous afternoon. I couldn't decide which was most fascinating, the horses, riders, observers or setting.

The rodeo begins. Northwestern China, 1982.

The riders were amazing.
Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

The action was everywhere.
Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

Women rode at least as good as men.
Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

The observers were as interesting as the
riders. Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

Discussing the action. Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.

Was that a grandfather and grandson?
Northwestern China Rodeo, 1982.