Emerging Technologies 2023

Welcome back. Four years ago, I reviewed the World Economic Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019 in a blog post Emerging Technologies. Covering 10 topics in one post was a new experience that I’ll try to repeat with the 2023 report.

Authored by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Frontiers Media and over 90 experts in 20 countries, the new report identifies technologies poised to have the biggest positive impact on society over the next three to five years.

Though space limits this post to a glimpse of the technologies, the report has broadened its scope, adding a qualitative assessment of how each technology will impact people, the planet, prosperity, industry and equity. Also new, the report provides interactive transformation maps that connect each technology to other topics on the global agenda, in addition to highlighting articles on the topic.

The Top 10 Emerging Technologies

World Economic Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2023 (from www.weforum.org/reports/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2023/in-full).

Artificial Intelligence-Facilitated Healthcare
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed weaknesses of public health systems worldwide, hastening incorporation of artificial intelligence and machine learning. AI-based healthcare solutions are likely to become increasingly prevalent; however, data privacy concerns, public acceptance and patient compliance must be addressed with a carefully crafted ethical framework.

Designer Phages
Phages--viruses that can selectively attack specific types of bacteria--may be strategically deployed to engineer the human microbiome--microbes on and in the body that are crucial for human health. By reprogramming phages, biologists can target bacterial species, inducing them to produce therapeutic molecules or to become sensitive to specific drugs. Such “designer” phages have demonstrated the potential to improve human, animal and plant health.

Flexible Batteries
Flexible batteries now appear in everything from wearable medical devices to flexible displays, smartwatches and textile-based electronics. The market is expected to expand rapidly to meet increased demand for wearable devices, greater miniaturization and elasticity. Companies are developing and commercializing related technology, though there is room for innovation and advances.

Flexible Neural Electronics
Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) capture electrical signals from the brain to control machines. While BMI-like systems are already used for treating epilepsy and some prosthetic devices, traditional probes can cause discomfort and lack signal accuracy. Recently developed flexible BMIs that conform to the brain could improve our understanding of brain diseases, provide greater control of prosthetics and boost development of brain-monitoring devices and brain stents. Future advances might lead to true human-artificial intelligence interfacing, though ethical issues must first be considered.

Generative Artificial Intelligence
Generative AI can produce new and original content by learning patterns in data through algorithms and methods inspired by the human brain. Used mostly for text, code, images and sound, it will likely be applied for other purposes, including drug design, architecture and engineering. It will also be deployed for educational materials and in the workplace, though ethical issues must be considered to ensure its responsible use. With controls in place, generative AI may have the potential to boost creativity and challenge conventional thinking.

Metaverse for Mental Health
Excessive screen time and social media use can decrease psychological well-being, yet the responsible use of virtual shared spaces in the metaverse may actually aid mental health. This immersive iteration of the internet (e.g., gaming platforms, electrode-containing headsets) has the potential to support multiple aspects of mental healthcare.

Spatial Omics
Spatial omics combines advanced imaging techniques with DNA sequencing to map biological processes at a molecular level. Visualization of previously unobservable cell architecture and biological events can be used to develop molecular-level “cell atlases” of different species and potentially aid therapeutic discovery, characterization of tumors and study of infectious diseases. Though technical challenges remain, spatial omics could ultimately revolutionize our understanding of biological systems.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Sustainable aviation fuel, produced from biological and non-biological resources, is one strategy the aviation industry is investigating to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Currently, aviation accounts for 2% to 3% of global carbon emissions, and sustainable aviation fuel accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel demand. Airlines, manufacturers and fuel companies are working to create hundreds of new sustainable fuel production plants.

Sustainable Computing
Data centers contribute an estimated 1% of global electricity consumption and a worsening environmental crisis. Innovative computing solutions, aided by multiple energy-efficiency techniques, are being developed to promote sustainable energy use. Achieving net-zero-energy data centers will require even more creative approaches to integrate and co-design technologies for electricity generation, storage and management.

Wearable Plant Sensors
Sensor-equipped tractors and satellite data have helped farmers boost efficiency. The next frontier is attaching small devices to crops to continuously monitor temperature, humidity, moisture and nutrients. Though challenges remain, wearable plant sensors may revolutionize crop production and management.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
World Economic Forum Top 10 Emergency Technologies of 2023 report: www.weforum.org/reports/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2023/in-full
Article on report on EurekAlert! website: www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/993827

Job-Stealing Robots

Welcome back. Although the blog was down during my futile attempt to catch up on other matters, I continued to review published research and did flag several studies. One of the earliest examined our perception of robots replacing humans in the workplace. 

Industrial robots on the assembly line (from www.therobotreport.com/top-5-countries-using-industrial-robots-2018/).

Robots have been playing greater roles in the workplace, yet studies have been mixed. Some find robots have a negative effect on employment, others find robots have a positive effect.

A Brigham Young University researcher sides with a positive association that he attributes to employees who possess the skills and expertise to collaborate with robots. He cites, for example, employees working alongside robots that restock workstations or retrieve parts on assembly lines and employees who develop, program, use, maintain or work with robots to perform technologically advanced tasks.

Gauging The Perception
In an effort to better understand the perception of job loss to robots, the researcher commissioned a U.S. national survey of nearly 2,000 individuals by Qualtrics in September 2021. His survey asked respondents (1) to estimate the percentage of employees whose jobs were replaced with robots and (2) if their own jobs had ever been replaced with robots.

Nearly 14% of survey respondents reported that their jobs had indeed been replaced with robots. Those respondents estimated that 47% of workers in the U.S. had lost jobs to robots. In contrast, survey respondents who had not lost jobs to robots estimated that only 29% of employees had their jobs replaced with robots.

Respondents’ perceptions of the percentage of workers who lost jobs to robots. Note sizable difference between respondents’ perceptions based on whether their own jobs were or were not replaced by robots (46.9% compared to 29.0%). All respondents’ perceptions overestimated those in the sample who jobs were actually replaced by robots (blue dashed line at 13.7 percent). (from journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23780231221131377).

Notably, the respondents’ perceptions of others losing jobs to robots did not match the experiences of the 14% in the survey sample. Respondents that did not lose their jobs to robots had a twofold increase between their perception of jobs lost compared with the results for the entire sample (29% compared with 14%). Those that did report losing their jobs had more than a threefold increase between their perception and the results for the sample (47% compared with 14%).

As you might expect, a comparison of perceptions by whether respondents lost jobs to robots suggests that one’s own job experience serves to bias perception toward others having had the same experience.

Wrap Up
The survey results are consistent with previous studies, which suggest that workplaces are integrating robots with employees in ways that generate more value for human labor. Robots are not displacing workers; at least not at the rate we might think from attention-grabbing headlines that predict a dire future of employment. The only sure prediction is that workplaces will continue to evolve.

The researcher writes that we make the mistake of expecting novel technologies to be adopted without considering all relevant contextual impediments--cultural, economic and government arrangements that support the manufacturing, sale and use of the technology. Just because a technology can be used for something does not ensure that it will be, or how quickly.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Study of perception of robots replacing workers in Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World journal: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23780231221131377
Article on study on EurekAlert! website: www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/970815

Dating-App Relationships

Welcome back. Before I highlight a study that’s a tad unusual from me, I’d better mention that I’ve been blissfully married for more than 30 years, have never used an online dating app and have little idea how they really work.

Nevertheless, that’s what the study is about, online dating apps like Tinder. These dating apps forego detailed user profiles used on dating websites (e.g., eHarmony) in favor of rating photos with a swipe review system.

Tinder, the dating app (from sites.google.com/site/howdoestinderwork/).

Honest, I looked twice at the study only because of its venue, Switzerland. Vicki, my Wisconsin-born and bred wife, worked in Switzerland after completing a postgraduate program in the Netherlands and working in the UK.

The study, by a researcher affiliated with University of Geneva, examined claims that online swipe-based dating apps damage the fabric of intimate ties, that they promote relationships less oriented toward long-term commitment.

Data for Analysis
The researcher analyzed data from the 2018 Family and Generations Survey, conducted by Swiss Federal Statistical Office as part of the federal population census program.

The survey included responses from 3,245 partnered individuals, of whom 104 used dating apps, 264 used dating websites and 125 used other online services to find their partner within the last decade.

While the study’s main independent variable was how partners met, the responses allowed assessment of marriage and cohabiting intentions within the next two years, fertility desire and intention within the next three years, and relationship and life satisfaction (each rated from 0 to 10).

Survey responses also allowed comparison of the similarity of data-app partners with partners created in typically homogenous settings, such as school, circles of friends or family.

Swiss Dating-App Couples
The study found that being introduced through friends is still the most common way couples meet in Switzerland; however, offline approaches (friends, family, school, work, bars, parties, clubs) were in decline, giving way to meeting online.

How heterosexual couples met in Switzerland,1995–2018 (from journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0243733).

Regarding relationship and life satisfaction, there was generally no difference between couples that met through dating apps and those initiated offline. Similarly, marriage intentions, fertility desire and fertility intentions did not differ significantly, though women that met online did have a marginally stronger desire and intention to have children in the next three years.

Men and women that met their partner on a dating app had stronger cohabiting intentions than those that met their partner offline.

Partners that met through dating apps were more educationally and geographically dissimilar than those that met offline, but there was no effect on partners comprised of a Swiss native and a migrant.

The age difference between partners that met online and between those that met offline was not significantly different, though couples initiated through dating platforms were closer in age than those initiated offline.

Wrap Up
So, what did we learn about dating apps, at least in Switzerland? 

First, dating apps (rating photos with a swipe review system) are becoming more and more popular. Second, partners initiated through dating apps do not shy away from long-term commitment nor experience low-quality connections. Third, partners introduced through dating apps exhibit greater differences in certain attributes, particularly education and geography.

How heterosexual couples met online in Switzerland, 1995–2018 (from journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0243733).

If you’re not blissfully married and these findings are appealing, you might want to give it a try. Or move to Switzerland. Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Dating app study in PLOS ONE journal: journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0243733
Article on study on EurekAlert! website: eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-12/udg-dad122220.php
Example dating sites:
www.cnet.com/news/best-dating-sites-for-2021/
tinder.com/
(www.help.tinder.com/hc/en-us/categories/115000755686-A-Guide-To-Tinder-)

Women Skipping STEM

Welcome back. If you don’t mind terribly, I’d like to expand a bit on my last blog post, The More Brilliant Gender. That post reviewed a study that demonstrated how people implicitly conceive of brilliance and genius as male more than female traits despite the lack of any gender difference in intellectual ability.

The issue isn’t really which gender is more brilliant but that women are underrepresented in fields perceived to require high-level intellectual ability, such as science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). The concern is that the male-brilliance stereotype might (i) arise from observing the distribution of women and men in these fields, (ii) cause those working in the fields to perceive women as unsuited and (iii) undermine women's inclination to pursue careers in the fields.

Highlighting the last, a recently published study by researchers affiliated with Cornell, Tel Aviv and Johns Hopkins universities traced women’s underrepresentation in STEM fields to gender differences that emerge in high school.

Educational Longitudinal Surveys
The source of data for the analysis was the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, in which the Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics monitored a nationally representative sample of young people from 10th-grade (high school sophomores) in 2002 through 2012.

The data included base-year questionnaire surveys in 2002 and follow-up surveys in 2004, 2006 and 2012. Schools provided high school transcripts in 2005, and additional information was collected from other sources, such as the American Council on Education (General Educational Development test data) and SAT/ACT (entrance exam scores).

Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 base-year to third follow-up school and student response rates, 2002-13 (Table A-1 from nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014363.pdf).

Approximately 10 years after their 10th-grade year, 19% were working for pay and taking postsecondary courses, 63% were working for pay only, 5% were taking postsecondary courses only and 13% were neither working for pay nor taking postsecondary courses. Education-wise, 33% had earned bachelor’s degrees or higher, 9% associate’s degrees, 10% undergraduate certificates, 32% postsecondary attendance but no credential, 13% high school diplomas or equivalent and 3% hadn’t graduated high school.

Women’s Underrepresentation in STEM
The researchers found that, of the college entrants who graduated high school in 2004, men were more than twice as likely as women to complete bachelor's degrees in STEM fields, including premed, and men were more likely to persist in STEM/biomedical after entering these majors by their sophomore year in college.

Seeking possible reasons for the gender and persistence gaps in STEM, the researchers showed gender differences in high school academic achievement, math test scores, advanced math and science courses, self-assessed math ability and attitudes toward family and work were only minor factors. 

What stood out from the surveys were the responses to one question in the 2002 baseline survey, repeated in 2004--Where did they see themselves at age 30.

Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 survey question asked in base year and first follow-up regarding occupational plans (from nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002/questionnaires.asp).

The gender gaps in STEM outcomes were strongly associated with gender differences in high school students' occupational plans. Among high school senior boys, 26% planned to enter STEM or biomedical occupations, compared with 13% of girls, while 15% of girls planned to enter nursing or similar health occupations compared with 4% of boys.

Wrap Up
The study results suggest that efforts to reduce gender differences in STEM outcomes need to begin early in students' educational careers. The researchers judge that achieving the objective will be difficult in the face of the underrepresentation of women in STEM, which influences young women's beliefs about the types of occupations where they will be welcome and rewarded fairly. But there’s lots that can be done. 

Brownie and Girl Scout Troop students conducting hands-on experiments at Johns Hopkins University’s Montgomery County Campus (from mcc.jhu.edu/news/girl-scout-troops-learn-science-at-jhu).

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Status of women in STEM from World Economic Forum: www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/stem-gender-inequality-researchers-bias/
Education Longitudinal Study of 2002: nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014363.pdf
Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 questionnaires: nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002/questionnaires.asp
Study of gender differences in STEM in Sociology of Education journal: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0038040720928484
Article on study from Cornell Chronicle: news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/07/gender-gaps-stem-college-majors-emerge-high-school

Sensor-Embedded Garments

Welcome back. Not too long ago, I blogged about a new fabric developed by University of Maryland researchers. Going a step beyond high-tech wicking polyesters, the fabric automatically responds to our skin’s temperature and humidity to either release or trap heat (see post, Thermally Responsive Fabric).

I know, where is it? While we’re waiting patiently for garments of that fabric to reach the market, I thought you might be interested to learn about a new development in textile-based wearable electronics (“e-textiles”). 

Wearable Electronics
Wearable electronics are far from new. These smart electronic devices are worn close to or on the skin, where they may be designed to gauge the wearer’s activity or health measures (e.g., steps walked, heart rate) and perform any number of other functions.

Wearable electronics example–-smartwatch for tracking fitness, monitoring heart rate and a whole lot more
(from www.pcmag.com/reviews/apple-watch-series-5).

E-textile capabilities for collecting health data are advancing rapidly, yet most measure a single modality, such as temperature, from one small area of the body. Enter MIT Media Lab’s new e-textile.

According to a recently published study by the MIT team, their so-called Electronic Textile Conformable Suit (E-TeCS) makes multimodal physiological measurements (currently, temperature, heart rate and respiration) over large areas of the body. What’s more, these garments are custom-fit, breathable and machine washable.

The Electronic Textile Conformable Suit
For the E-TeCS prototype garment, a horizontally striped shirt, the researchers combine long, thin, customizable, conformable electronic devices, including interconnect lines and off-the-shelf integrated circuits, with plastic substrates. These are woven into narrow channels in a polyester-blend, moisture-wicking textile using a high-throughput manufacturing approach.

Long, thin, customizable, conformable electronic devices are woven into narrow channels of striped textile (MIT Media Lab from www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/230022.php).

The channels in which the electronic devices are embedded have small openings toward the body where the sensors are exposed to the skin. E-TeCS is stretchable, similar to a compression garment, to ensure sensor contact between the textile and skin. (A pressure of 2 mmHg is sufficient for accurate skin temperature measurements.) The garments can be laundered with the sensors in place, or the sensors can be removed and transferred to a different garment.

The electronic devices and sensors in the prototype shirt follow the stripes and are connected to the main hub by copper wires inserted vertically through the seams. A computer or smartphone can access the sensors and log their data via wireless communication. 

The prototype garment has 31 sensor islands for 30 temperature sensors across the upper body and one accelerometer just below the sternum to estimate heart and breathing rates. Testing during intense physical exercise demonstrated continuous skin temperature measurements to an accuracy of 0.1 C (0.18 F) and heart rate and respiration with a precision of 0.0012 m/s². 

Illustration of E-TeCS for distributed on-body sensing with conformable electronic devices along selected stripes, temperature sensors, accelerometer (heart beat and respiration) below sternum and wireless module (MIT Media Lab from www.nature.com/articles/s41528-020-0068-y).

 Wrap Up
The research team successfully merged flexible-stretchable electronics with customized knit fabrics to develop the E-TeCS for distributed on-body sensing in vivo. The e-textile shirts can be easily manufactured in different sizes to fit an array of body types.

Looking ahead, the researchers plan to add additional health measures (e.g., blood oxygen levels) and develop other types of garments (e.g., pants). I wonder if they could use the University of Maryland’s thermally responsive fabric. 

Anyway, thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Review of wearable technology: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wearable_technology
MIT study of tailored, electronic textile conformable suit in npj Flexible Electronics: www.nature.com/articles/s41528-020-0068-y
Article on study on EurekAlert! website: www.nature.com/articles/s41528-020-0068-y

Emerging Technologies

Welcome Back. Longtime readers of this blog know how tuned in I am to technology. Perhaps recounting my discovery of self-lowering toilet seats (Technology Update Photo Addendum) wasn’t an appropriate beginning, but over the years, I’ve highlighted many honest-to-goodness technology topics.

Today’s post is a first: Ten topics in one post. Blame it on the World Economic Forum, because I’ll be reviewing the Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019 report.

Searching for the next technology breakthrough (photo from campustechnology.com/articles/2019/04/25/6-key-ed-tech-developments-on-the-horizon.aspx).

World Economic Forum Report
The World Economic Forum describes itself as the international organization for public-private cooperation. Established in 1971 and headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the Forum is an independent, impartial organization that engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.

The Forum’s report was prepared by an international steering committee of leading technology experts, who also sought input from other experts. Technologies were evaluated based on their potential to produce major benefits to societies and economies; alter established ways of doing things; attract researchers, companies or investors; and make significant inroads in several years.

The Top 10 Emerging Technologies

Bioplastics--Shifting to biodegradable plastics would alleviate many of the environmental problems arising from the millions of tons of plastics produced each year; however, current biodegradable plastics lack strength and the visual characteristics of standard plastics. Look for breakthrough products that use cellulose or lignin from plant waste.

Social Robots--Robots are becoming common in industry and in different aspects of our lives. Look for advances in artificial intelligence to continue improving their ability to serve as assistants and even friends, recognizing voices, faces and emotions with eye contact and expanded social and emotional intelligence.

Eldercare (sort of) robot from 2012 movie Robot & Frank (from
spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/home-robots/where-are-the-eldercare-robots).

Metalenses--The difficulty of reducing the size of glass lenses has interfered with efforts to reduce the size of cellphones, computers and other devices. Advances in physics have resulted in smaller, lighter metalenses. Look for further miniaturization of laboratory and consumer products and possible improvements in optical fibers.

Disordered Proteins as Drug Targets--Intrinsically disordered proteins are a class of proteins known to cause diseases, including cancer. Because they lack a fixed or ordered structure like conventional proteins, they are difficult to treat. A recent breakthrough showed a way to stop the structural transformation long enough for drugs to take effect. Look for improved patient treatments.

Smarter Fertilizers--Recent advances have promoted controlled release of fertilizers tailored to specific crops and growing conditions. Delivery efficiency and yields have increased, while environmental impact has decreased. Look for fertilizers to incorporate new sources of nitrogen and microorganisms that boost nutrient uptake.

Collaborative Telepresence--Video conferencing is not new, but with advances in augmented and virtual reality, coupled with 5G networks and advanced sensors, look for remote interactions that feel physically real, from handshakes to robotic medical practice.

Advanced Food Tracking and Packaging--Globally, food poisoning affects some 600 million people each year with deaths exceeding 400,000. Technologies are addressing two aspects of the problem. Blockchain technology is being applied in tracking food items through the supply chain, allowing rapid identification of the source of food poisoning. In addition, sensors to monitor food quality are being developed and added to both bulk and individual food packaging. Look for continued advances in tracking and packaging.

Example of packaging sensor for monitoring food freshness (from www.elsevier.com/physical-sciences-and-engineering/chemistry/journals/new-chemistry-research/smart-food-packaging).

Safer Nuclear Reactors--Nuclear power can contribute to the reduced use of fossil fuels and reduced carbon dioxide. New fuels and reactors are being developed that can greatly increase the safely of nuclear power. The fuels are more resilient, and if they overheat, produce little or no hydrogen. Look for continued improvements and trials.

DNA Data Storage--Current data-storage systems are high-energy users and are reaching their capacity to store the quantities of data we generate. Alternatives to hard drives are actively being explored. Look for breakthroughs in DNA-based data storage, a low-energy alternative with a huge data capacity.

Utility-Scale Storage of Renewable Energy--Electricity from renewable sources, especially wind and solar, has increased substantially, yet storage of energy when sun or wind are lacking has been a hindrance. Although alternatives are being pursued, look for lithium-ion batteries to dominate storage technology, with advances producing 4 to 8 hours of energy.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
The World Economic Forum: www.weforum.org/about/world-economic-forum
The Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019 report: www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_2019_Report.pdf
Write-up on report: www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/07/these-are-the-top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2019/

Thermally Responsive Fabric

Never mind cotton. Forget wool. Skip those high-tech, wicking polyesters. Have I got a fabric for you. Well, I don’t, but researchers from the University of Maryland do.

Welcome back. I thought you’d be interested to learn about this new fabric, even if it’s not quite ready for market. In short, the fabric is thermally responsive. It automatically responds to the temperature and humidity of our skin to either release or trap heat.

I could stop there, but I’ll continue for those in disbelief or who just want to learn more. Since the fabric’s ability to regulate the heat exchange is tied to infrared radiation, I’ll start there.

Infrared Radiation and Our Bodies
In a blog post several years ago, I illustrated the use of thermal sensing in medical imaging (Thermal Body Mapping Addendum).

Thermal images, where colors correspond to temperature differences, have been used to assess the effects of stress on hands of patients with different medical conditions or injuries (from iopscience.iop.org/0967-3334/33/3/R33/article).

As I wrote at the time, thermal imaging should at least be of value where dissipation of heat through the skin is diagnostic. Here’s what that was all about.

Photographic cameras collect radiation that we see. Thermal sensors collect radiation in the infrared (IR) region, which is beyond the sensitivity of our eyes. IR radiation covers a broad spectrum of wavelengths. Thermal sensors normally collect IR radiation at longer wavelengths, where the level of radiation is related to the temperature of the object sensed. In general, the hotter the object, the more IR radiation it emits.

The principal way our bodies lose (emit) and gain (absorb) heat is through IR radiation, and our skin is a very efficient emitter and absorber of IR radiation. If we’re cold, we add clothes to reduce the transmission of IR radiation; if we’re warm, we remove clothes to promote the transmission of IR radiation. The newly developed fabric does both.

How the Fabric Works
For the new fabric, the researchers took fibers of two different synthetic components, one that absorbs water, the other that repels it. They coated the fibers with a thin layer of carbon nanotubes (lightweight, carbon-based, conductive metal).

Because the coated fibers both absorb and repel water, the fabric warps when exposed to humidity such as from a sweating body. That distortion opens pores in the fabric, allowing heat to escape.

Of greater consequence, the distortion brings the coated fibers closer together. That modifies the electromagnetic coupling between neighboring fibers, changing the way the fabric interacts with IR radiation. Depending on the tuning, the fabric will either allow IR radiation to pass or block it almost instantaneously. 

Thermally responsive fabric (photo by Faye Levine from today.umd.edu/articles/hot-and-cold-comfort-a77c4599-3bb4-4efd-83d2-79ac418ad018).

Wrap Up
The researchers report that the new fabric effectively modulated the IR radiation by over 35% as the relative humidity of the underlying skin changed.

They note that, while more work is required before we’ll see clothes of the new fabric, the materials are readily available. The carbon nanotube coating can be added easily during the dyeing process. And yes, the fabric can be knitted, dyed and washed like other sportswear fabrics. So, get ready.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Study of new fabric in Science: science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/619
Example articles on study:
www.newscientist.com/article/2193057-heat-sensitive-fabric-cools-you-on-hot-days-and-warms-you-in-the-cold/
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190207142242.htm
www.apparelnews.net/news/2019/feb/21/university-maryland-researchers-create-fabric-envi/
Example article on infrared radiation and our bodies: www.health.belgium.be/en/interaction-between-radiation-and-human-body

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Who Knows GMOs?

Welcome back. In an earlier blog post (Science and Society), I highlighted Pew Research Center surveys from 2014 that measured agreement with several statements, including It’s safe to eat genetically modified foods.

At the time, 88% of U.S.-based scientists agreed with the statement compared with only 37% of the U.S. public.

The 10 genetically modified crops available in the U.S.: corn (field and sweet), soybeans, cotton, canola, sugar beets, alfalfa, papaya, squash, apples and potatoes (from gmoanswers.com/current-gmo-crops).

While those surveys set a marker for scientists versus the general public, Pew surveys of the American public in 2016 and 2018 found those who believe genetically modified (GM) foods are unhealthier than non-GM foods increased from 39% to 49%.

Scientists weren’t surveyed separately, yet additional survey questions established that the increased concern about GM foods was primarily from those with low levels of science knowledge. There was essentially no change from those with high science knowledge.

Comparison of 2016 and 2018 Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults regarding health effects of genetically modified foods, categorized by respondents’ science knowledge (from www.pewresearch.org/science/2018/11/19/public-perspectives-on-food-risks/).

Given those results, I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised that a recent study found the most extreme opposition to GM foods was from those who think they know the most--but actually know the least--about GM food science.

I’ll review that study after a look at GM foods.

Genetically Modified Organisms and Foods
Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are plants, animals and microorganisms whose genetic material (DNA) has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally or through traditional crossbreeding. Selected genes are transferred from one organism into another or between unrelated species. The goal is to proffer some advantage, such as crop protection from disease or insects.

Foods produced from or using GMOs are referred to as genetically modified or genetically engineered foods.

The scientific consensus is that GM foods pose no greater risk to human health than conventional foods and can provide substantial benefits, but that each GM food needs to be tested before it’s introduced.

GM food safety testing normally covers direct health effects (toxicity, allergenicity), specific components thought to have nutritional or toxic properties, stability of the inserted gene and any unintended effects of gene insertion.

Characterizing U.S. GM Food Opponents
The assessment of extreme opponents to GM food was conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Colorado, Boulder, Washington University in St. Louis, the University of Toronto and the University of Pennsylvania.

They initially surveyed a representative sample of 501 U.S. adults asking two questions about GM foods: opposition (1-none to 7-extreme) and concern (1-none to 7-extreme).

Next, they asked participants to rate their understanding of GM foods (1-vague to 7-thorough).

Finally, they tested the participants’ scientific literacy with 15 true-false questions drawn from such sources as the American Association for the Advancement of Science Benchmarks for Science Literacy. Five of the 15 items concerned genetics (e.g., All plants and animals have DNA).

The results showed that as opposition to and concern about GM foods increase, knowledge about science and genetics decreases; however, perceived understanding of GM foods increases. In other words, extreme opponents know the least, but think they know the most.

International GM Food Opponents
The researchers conducted a parallel assessment using nationally representative samples from France (500 participants), Germany (519) as well as the U.S. (540).

Objective genetics knowledge was measured with 10 true-false questions. Self-assessed knowledge was measured by asking, “How much do you know about genetically modified food?” (1-not at all to 5-a great deal).

Extremity of opposition was measured by averaging across 12 items that encompassed reluctance to buy, desire to regulate and willingness to oppose GM products, for example, through public demonstration.

The results were similar to the initial U.S. assessment. Across the entire sample, and controlling for country, extremity of opposition and self-assessed knowledge increase as objective knowledge decreases.

Predicted relationships between extremity of opposition and both objective and self-assessed knowledge by country; shading represents the 95% confidence interval (from www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0520-3).

Wrap Up
Although the study focus was on GM foods, the researchers also surveyed for concern about and belief in human-caused climate change. The direction of the effects was the same, but the results were not statistically significant.

Unlike beliefs about GM foods, whose opposition was shared by liberals, moderates and conservatives, climate change beliefs were highly polarized by political identification. Conservatives were much more likely to oppose the scientific consensus. The researchers posit that, for highly politicized issues, ideological commitments may supersede individual knowledge.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Pew survey of public perspectives on food risks: www.pewresearch.org/science/2018/11/19/public-perspectives-on-food-risks/
Background on GM foods:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_food
www.who.int/foodsafety/areas_work/food-technology/faq-genetically-modified-food/en/
gmoanswers.com/gmo-basics
Study of GM food opponents in Nature Human Behaviour journal: www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0520-3
Article on study on ScienceDaily website: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190114114221.htm

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Swallowable Biomedical Devices

Welcome back. Several years ago, I began a blog post by describing a monthly newsletter I produced in the 1970s and early 1980s while in academia (Research Sponsor Bias).

That pre-internet era newsletter was mimeographed, stapled and mailed to about 500 individuals across campus and in some 45 states and 15 countries to provide updates on our academic program and other relevant items.

One of those relevant items was an article on a capsule that would be swallowed to collect information about the body and digestive system. Being even more humorous than I am today and since the newsletter’s theme was remote sensing, I titled the article “Innards Sensing.”

I can’t recall a single detail about the article, capsule or developers, yet I remember the title because another newsletter--the newsletter of a non-US government organization no less--copied my article and title. At least someone appreciated my humor.

Ingestible Sensor Development
Development hasn’t been fast, but ingestible electronic capsules or pills are now rapidly evolving with applications including optical imaging, sensing body vital signs, ensuring medication is taken and drug delivery.

A camera inside a capsule that captures and transmits images as it travels through the esophagus, stomach and duodenum (from www.medtronic.com/covidien/en-us/products/capsule-endoscopy/pillcam-ugi-system.html).

One of the latest examples was described in a paper by researchers affiliated with MIT, Draper University and Brigham and Women's Hospital. Their new device incorporates features that members of the research team designed for earlier ingestible sensors and drug delivery capsules.

Device Status
Advances in multi-material 3-D printing enable their device to survive in the gastric environment for about a month and maintain about two weeks of wireless electronics communications before breaking down and passing through the digestive tract.

After being swallowed, the device unfolds into a Y-shape that can carry drugs as well as sensors to monitor and relay information.

Ingestible biomedical electronic device (from onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/admt.201800490).

One arm of the device has four compartments that can be loaded with drugs. The drugs can be packaged for gradual release over days or be released if infection, allergic reaction or other events are sensed. The compartments could be designed to be opened remotely with Bluetooth wireless technology.

The prototype device is powered by a silver oxide battery; however, alternative power sources are being explored, including stomach acid.

Although the researchers have designed sensors for monitoring vital signs such as heart rate and breathing rate, the reported study focused on temperature. Testing the device in pigs, they demonstrated the capability of monitoring and relaying temperature to a smartphone within arm’s length. The short distance is driven by desired security.

The researchers hope to begin testing in humans within about two years.

Wrap Up
The innards sensor I reported in the newsletter some 40 years ago is coming to fruition with many significant enhancements. As the researchers note:

[T]he synergistic integration of reconfigurable gastric-residence structure, drug release modules, and wireless electronics could ultimately enable the next-generation remote diagnostic and automated therapeutic strategies.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Ingestible electronic capsule study in Advanced Materials Technologies journal: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/admt.201800490
Example articles on study:
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181213083639.htm
consumer.healthday.com/health-technology-information-18/medical-technology-news-466/coming-soon-a-tiny-robot-you-swallow-to-help-you-stay-healthy-740551.html
www.teslarati.com/3d-printed-electronic-pill-dispense-medicine-stomach/
Example articles on other ingestible medical devices:
www.proteus.com/
www.medtronic.com/covidien/en-us/products/capsule-endoscopy/pillcam-ugi-system.html
www.medtronic.com/covidien/en-us/products/capsule-endoscopy/pillcam-sb-3-system.html
arbabianlab.stanford.edu/research/ingestibles
www.healthcareitnews.com/news/fda-approves-first-digital-pill-drug-comes-ingestible-sensor

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Wasp and Honeybee Stingers

Stinging wasp (from
www.healthline.com/health/wasp-sting#symptoms).

Welcome back. Having recently rolled up my sleeve for a flu shot, I was particularly interested in an investigation of wasp and honeybee stingers. It’s not that the shot stung--I hardly felt it; it was the nature of the study:

Conduct a biomechanical evaluation of stingers for insight to design a painless and mechanically durable micro syringe-needle system for biomedical applications. How cool is that?

And because I’d been on the receiving end of a wasp’s stinger a dozen or more times over the years, I was also intrigued by the detailed figures and assessment of how they (the wasps) had accomplished that task. I thought you might be, too.

Stinger Investigation
Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology and Ohio State University analyzed wasp (Vespula vulgaris) and honeybee (Apis cerana) stingers using:

- 3D micro-computed tomography to assess stinger structure. Micro-computed tomography, like CAT scans, uses x-rays to image cross-sections of an object to produce a virtual model of the object non-destructively.

- Nanoindentation to determine their mechanical properties. Nanoindentation enables the measurement of properties, such as elastic modulus and hardness, at submicroscopic scales. The elastic modulus is the resistance to being deformed elastically when a stress is applied; hardness is the resistance to plastic deformation.

- Numerical modeling to assess the mechanical behavior during stinger penetration.

Stinger Structure
The researchers obtained the 3D-structures, geometry with approximate dimensions, and functioning mechanism of both wasp and honeybee stingers.

(a) Structure of wasp stinger and cross sections at (b) base, (c) medial region, (d) apical region and (e) near tip (from
www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33386-y).

Both insects’ stingers can be sectioned in length into three regions--basal, medial and apical; both are composed of paired lancets that slide back and forth for penetration, one stylet and a tip. The lancets and stylet have hollow shafts to deliver venom through the orifice, and their diameter decreases from base to tip. That gradient geometry improves mechanical stability and durability.

The wasp stinger is on the order of 2.67 millimeters (about 0.1 inch) long; the honeybee stinger is shorter, on the order of 1.62 mm (about 0.06 in).

The wasp stinger has curvature and a reinforcement rib at its medial region; the honeybee stinger has neither. The reinforcement rib improves buckling resistance during penetration.

The honeybee stinger has reverse-facing barbs that make an angle of 9 degrees with the stinger shaft, facilitating penetration. The barbs stick into the victim’s skin after insertion.

Stinger Mechanical Properties
Nanoindentation measurements along the stingers’ dorsal surface found the elastic modulus and hardness of wasp and honeybee stingers have negative gradients from base to tip, with no distinguishable gradient in the transverse direction.

Elastic modulus and hardness along length of honeybee stinger (from www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33386-y).

Stinger Mechanical Behavior
The numerical modeling, based on the tomographic images and nanoindentation measurements, show the stress and strain distribution of wasp and honeybee stingers for penetration are optimum at angles of about +10° and -6°, respectively. The insects would adopt these angles to sting.

Bioinspired Micro Syringe-Needle
The researchers drew upon the gradient geometry and mechanical properties, as well as the insertion angle and sliding mechanism of paired lancets with the venom pumping mechanism to design a micro syringe-needle device.

(a) Proposed design of micro syringe needle system, (b) Enlarged view of internal structure (tip removed), (c) Sliding motion of lancets to generate an outlet near tip in enlarged view (from www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33386-y).

The micro needle should have a decreasing diameter from base to the tip and be made of materials that have gradient mechanical properties, minimum at the tip (i.e., softest) and maximum at the base.

A geometry similar to that of the stingers (primarily the wasp stinger’s curvature at the medial region) will give minimum stress if inserted in a specific angle and should improve the mechanical durability and performance.

Wrap Up
The study demonstrated that insights gained through detailed analysis of the structural features, gradient geometry, mechanical properties and mechanical performance of wasp and honeybee stingers can be used to design a micro syringe-needle or other bioinspired devices. I repeat, how cool is that?

Thanks for stopping by. I hope it was of interest to you.

P.S.
Study of wasp and honeybee stingers in Scientific Reports journal: www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33386-y
Article on study on ScienceDaily website: www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181009102420.htm

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Innovative Robotic Actuators

Welcome back. As some might say about art, I don’t know much about robotic actuators, but I know what I like. And I really like how Cornell University researchers are using popcorn--popcorn!--to power robotic devices.

Actuators
Actuators are key components of machines, not only robotic systems. When an actuator receives a control signal, it converts the signal’s energy into mechanical motion, generally linear or rotary.

Actuators may be based on hydraulic, pneumatic, electric, thermal or mechanical means, and they’re increasingly being driven by software. Now add popcorn to the list.

Warren’s demonstration of popcorn’s change in volume after popping: Same number of kernels, and some didn’t pop.

Why popcorn? Heating popcorn kernels to vaporize the moisture produces a rapid force, motion, change in shape and rigidity, and increase in volume. These responses can be used to advantage even if they occur only once. That popcorn is readily available, cheap, light weight, biodegradable and, of course, edible are added benefits.

Popcorn Properties
The researchers first measured key properties of three types of popcorn subjected to four types of heating (submersion in hot oil, hot air, microwave and direct contact with heated nichrome 60 wire, which is widely used in heating elements).

They found kernels pop with a relatively high force (nearly 40 millinewtons or about 0.01 pound-force). The popped kernels expand some 10 times in volume, change viscosity by nearly an order of magnitude, exhibit inter-kernel jamming and become more biodegradable. Popping can be induced effectively by the four heating methods tested, and each has trade-offs.

Popcorn-Driven Actuators
They then examined how popcorn’s unique qualities can power robotic devices that grip, expand or change rigidity by constructing and demonstrating different types of popcorn-driven actuators.

Jamming actuator--they used heated nichrome wire to pop kernels in a flexible silicone rod, causing the rod to stiffen and lift a 100 gram (3.5 ounce) weight.

Popcorn-driven jamming actuator. A silicon tube contains three lower modulus silicone tubes of kernels and nichrome wire. When current is applied to the wire, the kernels pop, jam against one another and create a relatively rigid rod (from stevenceron.weebly.com/uploads/9/6/4/9/96490288/popcorn-driven-robotic.pdf).

Elastomer actuator-- they used heated nichrome wire to pop kernels in three silicon fingers of a soft gripper, causing the fingers to curl and grip a ball.

Popcorn-driven elastomer actuator. Three silicon tubes of kernels and nichrome wire, with an attached strain-limiting layer to create bending, respond when current is applied and kernels pop (from stevenceron.weebly.com/uploads/9/6/4/9/96490288/popcorn-driven-robotic.pdf).

Origami actuator (shape-programmable)--they folded recycled popcorn bags into bellows, filled them with kernels and microwaved them. The popped kernels’ expansion was strong enough to support a 9-pound (4 kg) kettlebell.

Popcorn-driven origami actuator. Paper-folded bellows filled with kernels are mechanically programmed to expand into a circle when the kernels are heated by a microwave oven and pop (from stevenceron.weebly.com/uploads/9/6/4/9/96490288/popcorn-driven-robotic.pdf).

They also demonstrated the use of popcorn to actuate a three-fingered rigid link gripper. Hot-air popped kernels packaged between two wooden plates separated the plates causing tendons to contract and close the fingers.

Wrap Up
This first study of using popcorn to drive an actuator was part of a larger plan to produce simple robots that might be deployed in large numbers to perform useful tasks.

Having successfully demonstrated that popcorn can power robotic devices to perform basic functions, the researchers’ next step is to design the infrastructure for standalone popcorn-driven robots. That will require an embedded system capable of heating the kernels and a pump capable of moving the kernels.

Overall, the researchers hope the findings of this initial effort will help pave the way for a wide range of applications of rigid, compliant and soft robots.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Study presented at 2018 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, Brisbane, Australia: stevenceron.weebly.com/uploads/9/6/4/9/96490288/popcorn-driven-robotic.pdf
Article on study on IEEE Spectrum website: spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-hardware/popcorndriven-robotic-actuators
Article on study on Cornell Chronicle website: news.cornell.edu/stories/2018/07/kernel-promise-popcorn-powered-robots
Background on actuators:
www.techopedia.com/definition/17043/actuator
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuator

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.

Forensic Science Gap

Welcome back. Do you watch TV crime shows? TV isn’t my forte, but it seems there have been quite a few shows that highlight the marvels of forensic science. Though I never saw CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, I’ve seen episodes of CSI Miami. And being alert to current events, I knew that Abby (Pauley Perrette), the forensic scientist on NCIS, was leaving.

Crime scene police tape (photo from news.gsu.edu/2018/03/07/georgia-state-law-review-symposium-explores-future-forensic-science-reform-april-6/).

If you missed the news, forensic science has a problem that goes way beyond TV and Abby’s departure. I’m not referring to crime show myths reviewed in a 2017 Guardian interview--e.g., DNA does not solve every case, evidence and results do not come quickly, not everyone leaves fingerprints.

No, the problem is much more fundamental. Forensic science--the application of scientific principles and techniques to criminal justice, especially to collecting, examining and analyzing physical evidence--is, well, short on science.

Scientific Validation Lacking
Scientists affiliated with West Virginia, Cornell, Brown, Arizona and Johns Hopkins universities and the Salk Institute for Biological Studies discussed the problem in a recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The six scientists were members of the former National Commission for Forensic Science, which I’ll get back to.

In brief, three Supreme Court rulings in the 1990s led to the requirement that scientific evidence must be both reliable and relevant. That posed a quandary for prosecutors.

Many forensic methods, particularly those applying pattern evidence (e.g., fingerprint, firearm and toolmark, blood stain, tire and footwear, handwriting and bite mark analyses), evolved outside of traditional science before the new admissibility standards. Past convictions could be in jeopardy if they relied on methods that were never validated scientifically.

Bite mark identification, a forensic method discredited by science and false convictions, continues to be accepted in U.S. courts as a matter of precedent (photo from aboutforensics.co.uk/forensic-odontology/).

National Research Council Report
Congress directed the National Academy of Sciences to study and recommend ways to strengthen forensic science. The resulting 328-page, 2009 report from the National Research Council described serious deficiencies in the nation's forensic science system.

For example, although forensic evidence is often offered to match evidence to a person or source, only nuclear DNA analysis has been shown able to consistently, and with a high degree of certainty, demonstrate the connection. To define the measurement uncertainty of other forensic methods (e.g., the likelihood a fingerprint is yours versus matches yours) would require large population studies to determine how many sources might share the same or similar features.

In recommending major reforms and new research, the report strongly urged Congress to establish an independent entity to lead the research, establish and enforce standards for forensic professionals and laboratories, and oversee education standards.

National Commission for Forensic Science (NCFS)
In response, Congress created the NCFS, not as an independent entity, but under the Department of Justice (DOJ) and National Institute of Standards and Technology. The commission was to provide recommendations and advice to the DOJ.

Begun in 2013 under the Obama administration, the NCFS was terminated by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions in 2017 as the commission began the last meeting of its second term with some far-reaching recommendations pending.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions (photo from www.cbsnews.com/news/jeff-sessions-continues-as-attorney-general-in-spite-of-trumps-open-criticism/).

The commission had held 13 meetings, heard from 140 invited presenters and approved 43 documents and summary reports. Composed of a diverse mix of 40 forensic and non-forensic scientists, law enforcement officials, judges and attorneys, the NCFS overcame a steep learning curve to function efficiently. Only one document was approved before its fifth meeting, yet eight were approved at a single 2016 meeting.

Wrap Up
The six scientists judge that the hard work needed to forge the heterogeneous commission into a consensus-reaching body was lost with NCFS’s termination.

They ask the larger scientific community to advocate for: (i) the research and financial support needed to advance forensic methods and (ii) the requirement for empirical testing to advance the cause of justice.

Undoubtedly the DOJ can strengthen forensic science without the NCFS but transferring oversight of forensic science from independent scientists to law enforcement is not encouraging. Observers like me have to wonder if the move was taken to appease prosecutors or, given other actions by the Trump administration, to simply roll back another Obama-era program and ignore science.

Thanks for stopping by.

P.S.
Guardian newspaper interview with forensics expert: www.theguardian.com/universal-sony-pictures-home-entertainment-tv-crime-shows-uncovered/2017/aug/30/the-forensic-myth-our-forensics-expert-tackles-some-of-tvs-biggest-fibs
Article on forensic science in Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences: www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/04/11/1712161115
National Research Council’s 2009 report and press release on strengthening forensic science:
www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/228091.pdf
www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12589
National Commission for Forensic Science:
www.justice.gov/archives/ncfs
(www.justice.gov/archives/ncfs/page/file/959356/download)
Example articles on termination of National Commission for Forensic Science:
www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/sessions-orders-justice-dept-to-end-forensic-science-commission-suspend-review-policy/2017/04/10/2dada0ca-1c96-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3f1dea75cb5e
www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/49183/title/Forensics-Left-in-Lurch-by-Sessions/
www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/opinion/sessions-is-wrong-to-take-science-out-of-forensic-science.html

A version of this blog post appeared earlier on www.warrensnotice.com.